The Form Table
Every team’s last 15 games, pulled apart into the piece that is a real change in process and the piece that is only luck. Forecasts appear for one kind of team only — the ones inside a genuine slump window — because that is the only window the model was trained to speak for.
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The Anatomy of a Slump — methodology and the backtest behind this table: how form and luck are separated, what the forecast can and cannot see, and the 491 historical slump windows it was graded against.