Independent Baseball Analysis Sat, August 1, 2026
Called Third
The Nightly Bullpen Ledger

Arsonists & Firemen

The single most dramatic bullpen win-probability swing of the night — the lead that got torched, or the jam that got escaped — plus the full ledger. Built from Statcast win probability and refreshed every morning.

A printed win-probability chart with one steep late-game swing, a baseball resting on the page beside a stopwatch and a rosin bag.
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How it’s scored. A reliever’s swing is his win-probability added (WPA) over his plate appearances — the standard measure, which counts only his own pitching. The ENTER → LEFT levels are the team’s win probability when he entered and when he left — for example, a reliever who enters at 93% and leaves at 15% swings −78. The hero is whichever appearance moved win probability most, in either direction; a genuinely quiet night stays quiet.