Count Calculator
Select any ball-strike count to see outcome probabilities — strikeout, walk, home run, and more. The count tells you almost everything about what happens next.
No 2026 outcome data available yet for this count. Data is updated nightly.
How this works
Outcome probabilities answer the question: "Given that the count has reached X, what is the probability of each final at-bat outcome?" For example, the strikeout rate at 0-2 is the number of plate appearances that passed through an 0-2 count and eventually ended in a strikeout, divided by all plate appearances that reached 0-2. Every at-bat passes through 0-0, so the 0-0 row represents the league-wide average.
2025 Full Season uses the complete 2025 MLB regular season from Statcast (729,827 pitches, ~200K plate appearances). 2026 So Far uses the same methodology on 2026 data collected nightly — sample sizes are smaller early in the season, so expect more variance.
Umpire Accuracy is a different view: it shows how often umpires make correct called-pitch rulings at each count. This uses only called pitches (not swings or fouls) from the CalledThird database, classified against the ABS zone model. Higher counts like 3-2 tend to have lower accuracy because borderline pitches carry more strategic weight.
Key metrics: wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) combines all outcomes into a single rate weighted by run value — league average is ~.310, above .350 is excellent. Avg EV is the average exit velocity on balls put in play.