CalledThird
Data-driven baseball analysis
for the thinking fan
Original analysis that tests baseball's conventional wisdom with real data. Automated game-night umpire reports. Interactive tools that let you explore the data yourself.
Which Pitchers Can You Predict?
14 elite starters, 73,735 pitches, and one standout: Chris Sale's next pitch is predictable 58% of the time. The broad thesis fails, but five pitchers beat the threshold.
ABSCatcher Framing in the ABS Era
74 catchers, an 18.7pp gap between best and worst framers. In the ABS era, good framing may gain value because it influences whether batters challenge.
ABSThe Anatomy of a Missed Call
379,155 called pitches, a 7.2% miss rate, and the half-inch cliff where human judgment breaks down. Challenge value by count, catcher framing, and where umpires miss most.
Pitch PredictionThe Count Tells You Everything
We built a pitch prediction model on 729,827 pitches. It works — but it barely beats just knowing the count. The broad pitch prediction thesis is dead.
MythsTwo Myths the Data Kills
Pitchers don't lose their command (r = 0.007). Plate discipline doesn't predict future hitting (r = -0.019). Two beliefs that don't survive the data.
Zone Explorer
Interactive strike zone visualization filterable by umpire, count, and handedness.
Explore →Umpire Lookup
Search any umpire to see their zone shape, accuracy by region, and tendencies.
Explore →Count Calculator
Select any count to see K, BB, HR, and hit probabilities with live probability bars.
Explore →Challenge Tracker
ABS challenge decisions by team and catcher — who's using them wisely?
Explore →