CalledThird
Data-driven baseball analysis
for the thinking fan
Original analysis that tests baseball's conventional wisdom with real data. Automated game-night umpire reports. Interactive tools that let you explore the data yourself.
Do Pitchers Lose Their Command?
4,892 starts. The average scatter is flat — but 14% of starts produce a blow-up, and Garrett Crochet's scatter increases 31.5% on average.
UmpiresFour Kinds of Zone
83 umpires, 380K pitches, and a 21-point gap in borderline strike rates. A framework for understanding tonight's umpire.
Run ValueThe Umpire Effect: How Much Does It Matter?
Per-game run impact of every wrong call. CB Bucknor's BOS-CIN game shifted ~4 runs. Ron Kulpa appears twice in the top 10.
ABSThe Challenge System Is Quietly Favoring Defense
541 ABS challenges, 55% overturned. The fielder side challenges more and wins more. The data reveals a 4.8-run asymmetry favoring defense.
Pitch PredictionWhich Pitchers Can You Predict?
14 elite starters, 73,735 pitches, and one standout: Chris Sale's next pitch is predictable 58% of the time. The broad thesis fails, but five pitchers beat the threshold.
ABSCatcher Framing in the ABS Era
74 catchers, an 18.7pp gap between best and worst framers. In the ABS era, good framing may gain value because it influences whether batters challenge.
ABSThe Anatomy of a Missed Call
379,155 called pitches, a 7.2% miss rate, and the half-inch cliff where human judgment breaks down. Challenge value by count, catcher framing, and where umpires miss most.
Pitch PredictionThe Count Tells You Everything
We built a pitch prediction model on 729,827 pitches. It works — but it barely beats just knowing the count. The broad pitch prediction thesis is dead.
MythsTwo Myths the Data Kills
Pitchers don't lose their command (r = 0.007). Plate discipline doesn't predict future hitting (r = -0.019). Two beliefs that don't survive the data.
Game Reports
Nightly umpire accuracy reports for every MLB game with scores, missed calls, and ABS challenge data.
Explore →Umpire Profiles
83 umpires with 2025 zone styles, 2026 live accuracy, borderline strike rates, and game-by-game detail.
Explore →ABS Challenges
Challenge success rates, catcher efficiency leaderboard, and count strategy heatmap. Updated nightly.
Explore →Zone Explorer
Interactive pitch location visualization — dots or heatmap — filterable by game, team, umpire, and handedness.
Explore →Count Calculator
At-bat outcome probabilities by count. Compare 2025 full season vs 2026 so far, plus umpire accuracy view.
Explore →